Poll results published by Gallup on Oct. 30 showed Mitt Romney ahead of President Barack Obama by five points. Rasmussen had Romney up by two and the average difference, according to Real Clear Politics, was 0.8 in Romney’s favor.
The numbers have flip-flopped the last several weeks. The popular vote will most definitely be a fight. With the Electoral College still granting Obama 10 more votes than Romney and several significant swing states still up in the air, it is difficult to predict what could happen on Tuesday.
It is quite possible that the election will be a repeat of 2000, when Al Gore won the popular vote but Bush won the Electoral College vote.
The Electoral College was established by the U.S. Constitution. The purpose was to allow voters to cast votes for electors, who would then cast their votes for candidates. At the time, there was fear of the uneducated popular vote accompanied by fear of allowing Congress to choose the president. The Electoral College was the compromise.
Forty-eight states practice a winner-take-all system in which every electoral vote for a state goes to the candidate who won the popular vote in the state. This can be a big deal for large states with a lot of electoral votes, such as California or Texas. Maine and Nebraska practice what is called a congressional district method, in which each elector votes to represent different districts with different conclusions.
The trouble comes when electors pledge to vote based on their state or congressional district, but then change their mind and vote for the other candidate. At least two dozen states have established punishment for these faithless electors; yet, it still happens and is one major criticism of the Electoral College system.
Today, a candidate must receive 270 of the 538 electoral votes to win. In cases where there is no majority, the decision is given to the House of Representatives. The House selects the president by majority vote with each state delegation receiving one vote.
Since the 2000 elections, many states and government leaders have called for Electoral College reform.
This election may very well be the tipping point for the Electoral College. Just imagine if Obama won the popular vote and then the Electoral College declared Romney as president of the United States. Claims of racism and attacks on the Republican House would surely ensue. Or if Romney won the popular vote and Obama won the electoral? I shudder when I consider the wrath Rush Limbaugh would bestow upon the airwaves.
The pandemonium may be enough to either radically change the Electoral College or spur thoughts of why the U.S. established the system in the first place.
Moral of the story: At the very least, America needs to assure that the electoral vote will align with the popular vote. A better solution might be to scrap the system all together. After all, the original purpose was to compromise between a mistrust of big government and a mistrust of the common man. Neither fear is nearly as prominent or rational anymore. With a strong watchdog media, systems of checks and balances for every major agency and an educated and literate public, I believe we can trust our own to adequately choose their leader.
