On March 30, North Korea declared themselves to be in a state of war against South Korea. Additionally, North Korean officials have continued to voice various threats against South Korea and the United States.
According to South Korean news agency Yonhap, North Korea has moved two missiles to the east coast. One missile has “considerable range,” according to South Korean Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin, possibly capable of reaching Guam, a United States territory with a considerable United States military presence. South Korean Defense Ministry spokesman Kim Min-seok recently stated that North Korea was preparing a nuclear test, but on April 8 he retracted his statement, claiming that he had misspoken.
On April 11, North Korea’s Committee for Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland stated that North Korea has “powerful striking means” and has entered target coordinates for a mid-range missile test. On April 3, North Korea stopped allowing South Korean workers access to the Kaesong Industrial Region and on April 8 withdrew more than 50,000 of their own workers. On April 17, North Korea restricted a South Korean delegation from delivering food and supplies to 200 South Korean workers left in the region.
The validity of North Korea’s threats has been debated. North Korea’s missile range, as well as in their nuclear capabilities, have also been a source of doubt. White House spokesman Jay Carney stated that the recent string of threats “is a familiar pattern of behavior out of North Korea” but that the United States is taking “all necessary precautions.”
Harding graduate Steven Denney, editor-in-chief of the Yonsei Journal of International Studies, managing editor of SinoNK.com and an M.A. candidate at the Yonsei University Graduate School of International Studies, agrees that North Korea’s actions fit into a recurring pattern.
“They (North Korea) certainly know how to play the international community…” Denney said. “There is no small amount of historical continuity here; this is a tried-and-true strategy.”
Denney said North Korea’s current goal is to put themselves in a better bargaining position for concessions from the United States. Denney said if the United States concedes anything, North Korea “will go to work selling it domestically.” The North Korean government, according to Denney, does not want its citizens to realize they are living in “a fourth-rate South Korea.”
As far as the United States is concerned, Denney said North Korea’s actions are not enough to warrant a response.
“It would take much more than a small scale conflagration/provocation to warrant a strong response from the U.S.,” Denney said. “North Korea knows this, perhaps better than anyone.”
Junior Jonathan Crews, American Studies Institute distinguished student president, pointed out that not only would North Korea need to have better missile capabilities, but would have to militarize a nuclear warhead before being able to launch an attack. Crews also mentioned that North Korean rockets run on liquid fuel and would take long enough to fuel that they could be preemptively attacked while still on the launch pad.
“North Korea’s nuclear program is the biggest possible threat,” Crews said. “The biggest threat is to nations like South Korea or Japan. North Korea does not have the capability to hit the continental United States with an ICBM, although there is some debate on whether they could hit Hawaii.”
